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Saturday, September 29, 2012
User:
jsorrell
Date: 9/27/2012 11:28 am
Views: 770
Rating: 5
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Red Mile Race Reviews
Saturday, September 29th
Track Handicapper – Gabe Prewitt
Race 1 Selections 3-2-4-1
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1
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UF Dragons Cruiser
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($40k HB yearling) Held his
own against mid-level PA stakes company this season, but appears to be a
notch or two below the favs in here right now. Handily defeated by #2 back on 8-13.
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2
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Eddie Sweat
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($10k Adios yearling –
highest AAN colt sold in ’11) Only one small nose separates him from a 4 race
win streak, no question he is razor sharp right now! Likely to be blasting once again in here. Palone chose over #5.
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3
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Blatantly Best
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($9k Lex yearling) Came up
only a nose short in the $250k KYSS Final, and was defeated in there by a
nice colt. Has a ton of speed, but be
aware he still races a little green.
Broke 2 back, was bearing out last time.
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4
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Humility
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Tired late after being
aggressively handled last time in Canadian overnight, but has flashed some
speed thus far in his brief career.
Not an easy spot here, but his best effort puts him right in the mix.
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5
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He Rocks the Moon
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($65k Lex yearling) Raced
evenly in Indy stake last time, and flashed a little talent when he first
burst onto the scene earlier this summer on the east coast. Will need his very best against these. Palone opted to #2 instead.
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6
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Lupara
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($14k Lex yearling) Yet to
win in 9 LT starts, but has hit the board in 6 of those. Appears to have landed in a bit tougher
group tonight though. Will have to
improve even more.
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Race 2 Selections 4-2-5-1
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1
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Emeritus Maximus
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($20k Lex yearling) Finished
up 2nd behind his wickedly fast stablemate here in the AM, but has
had some breaking troubles hit him recently.
I would expect a ground saving journey from the pole. Maybe underneath.
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2
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Dress the Part
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Picked up the final check in
the $1 million Metro 2 starts back at Mohawk, and has held his own against
some of the best colts around thus far in his brief career. Not sure if he dresses the part, but he
certainly looks the part.
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3
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Normandy Invasion
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($40k Lex yearling) Made a
break on Jug Day card on the small track, but held his own against mid-level
stakes company in PA earlier this summer.
That being said, a MUCH tougher group tonight.
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4
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Dovuto Hanover
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($40k HB yearling) Went off
as a heavy fav in the $200k PA Final last time, and showed a lot of fight to
finish up a close 5th after a BRUTAL trip rimmed the mile. Any smoother journey should make him
tough.
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5
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Dedi’s Dragon
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($15k IN yearling) Sprinted
away from his rivals to a dominant win in the $90k Indy stake last time, but
was beaten over 2 lengths by #4 back on 8-29 in PASS action. Maybe underneath once again.
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6
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Cowboy Terrier
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Sat last and raced evenly in
the $50k PASS Consolation last time, ending up well beaten by #5 in
there. I would expect another off the
pace rally here. Has to find a bit
more pop on the end.
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7
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Ok Fame
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Finished up 2nd
behind #3 the last time we saw him, but he hasn’t been in action in over a
month now. Doesn’t appear ready for
this crew just yet. Pass.
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Race 3 Selections 4-5-7-6
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1
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Modern Warfare
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($20k HB yearling) Has been
decent against the second tier of PASS company, but is going to need to find
a lot more ammunition to go to war with this crew. I’ll wait for a better spot. Palone opted to #5 instead.
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2
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Just Bettor
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($50k HB yearling) Appeared
to really turn the corner last time with a blowout win in a new LT mark. Prior starts hadn’t been overly
impressive. Heading in the right
direction, but this would be asking a lot.
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3
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Americas gottalent
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Had enough talent to hold
his own against the best in NY, but now lands in against some of the best in
the country here in stakes action. Not
an overly tough division, but still needs his very best.
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4
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Fool Me Once
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($70k HB yearling) Canadian
invader has been facing the very best colts around in top stakes action
recently, and dodges many of his main rivals in here tonight. Should be a much more manageable spot.
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5
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Our Dragon King
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Has been solid on the PASS
all season, winning half of his starts and finishing 1-2 in 8 of 10. No question he will likely be sprinting off
the gate, catch him if you can. Palone
opted here over #1.
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6
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Clint Westwood
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($100k HB yearling) No match
for #5 last time in the Keystone Classic, finishing a distant 5th. Has proven he can hold his own with some
tough company though, maybe underneath.
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7
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Sir Richard Z Tam
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($35k HB yearling) Sprinted
home right with a couple of nice colts here in the Q’fer, and owns a speedy
win earlier this season at Philly in 51.4.
No question his best puts him in the mix against these.
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Race 4 Selections 5-6-1-3
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1
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Rockin Amadeus
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Narrowly held 2nd
in $267k Champlain last time over #5.
Continues to improve with each start.
Should get the jump on his main rival once again after landing on the
pole.
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2
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Teresa’s Beach
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Well beaten by the favs in
here back on 8-25 in his Metro elim.
Rebounded with an easy score in Pocono overnight, but would have to
pick things up quite a bit to hang with the top ones tonight.
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3
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Real Rocker
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($75k Lex yearling) Off to a
bit of a late start here in his freshman campaign, but he has flashed some
big turn of foot thus far in only 3 starts.
Nearly pulled off a stakes upset last time, takes an even bigger step
up here.
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4
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Visa Viper
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($24k HB yearling) Had
plenty of clearance last time as a heavy fav in Excel stake, just wasn’t good
enough to get by his rivals late.
Things aren’t going to get any easier in here. Pass.
Sears opted to #3 instead.
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5
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Odds on Equuleus
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Yet to miss the board all
season, coming up only a neck short when he ran out of racetrack in the $1
million Metro 2 starts back. He WILL
be flying late, not sure they will be able to hold him off tonight.
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6
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Johny Rock
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($60k Lex yearling) Had
never been worse than 2nd before getting used extremely hard in
the $1 million Metro the last time we saw him, where he expectedly tired
late. Appeared to rebound in the
Q’fer, I’ll toss him under.
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7
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Beach Memories
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($70k HB yearling) Back to
back wins coming into tonight, but taking a step up to the major leagues
against this crew. Not sure I can
endorse him against these.
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Race 5 Selections 3-4-5-2
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1
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Lightning Paige
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Likely to fly a bit under
the radar here in stacked up crew, but keep in mind she was only defeated ¾
length by #7 in $104k stake on 8-11.
No question Sears will have her in play early from inside post. Your call.
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2
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Ramalama
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I can remember her winning
very impressively here last season, in what is still her LT best to this
day. Endured a tough first over trip
last time in $225k NYSS Final, should improve with the stretch out to the big
track.
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3
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Shelliscape
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Got caught behind a tag team
of Burke entries in Jugette Final, forcing her to come first over to battle
#7 unsuccessfully. Still a game
effort, and she unleashed a vicious rally in first heat. She fits with these.
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4
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Romantic Moment
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The Queen of New York is yet
to miss the board all season, riding a 4 race win streak coming into
tonight. Has a ton of early speed,
should be in line for a nice up close journey. Must respect. Gingras opted here over #7.
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5
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Big McDeal
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Speaking of a big deal, she
upset American Jewel here last year and has held her own with the top fillies
in North America this season as well. Another with good tactical speed, plenty of
options from mid-pack post.
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6
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Princess Cruiser
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No match for the top fillies
in the Jugette last week, and hooks an overly tough group here. I’ll wait for a better spot.
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7
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Darena Hanover
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I must admit that I wasn’t a
huge fan of hers going into the Jugette last week, but she showed some heart
to dig in to take the Final over her stablemate. Huge effort, but not convinced she does her
best work on a big track. Gingras
opted to #4 instead.
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Race 6 Selections 6-9-5-7 Start of $10,000 Guaranteed
Pick 4 See Ticket at the end
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1
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Il Mago
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Has some speed when he minds
his manners, but has encountered a ton of breaking problems recently. I’ll wait until we see some improvement
first.
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2
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No Recess
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Iowa fair invader has never been worse than 2nd
all season, but I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy against a
stacked up crew here. Not
tonight.
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3
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Weingartner
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His sophomore campaign
hasn’t worked out like connections were hoping I’m sure, with only 3 starts
prior to tonight. Added hobbles in the
AM at Pocono and finished 2nd behind the ’11 KY Futurity Champ. Worth risk?
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4
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We Belong Together
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I’m not exactly sure where
he does belong, but I don’t think it’s against the top ones in here. Pass.
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5
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Natural Forces
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The pride of Michigan steps up to
take on some tough company tonight, but he certainly hasn’t done anything
wrong to this point. Should improve
with the move to the mile strip. How
good is he? Good question.
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6
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My MVP
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Finished up a nice 3rd
in the $1.5 million Hambletonian earlier this summer, but has actually flown
under the radar a bit in against the best 3yo’s in North
America all season. No
question the one to beat in this spot.
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7
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Quel Bourbon
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Sprinted home to win in an
absolute monsoon last time in Indy, and actually held his own against some
very tough trotters here in KYSS action.
His best effort puts him in the mix.
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8
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Touched By Lindy
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Lightly raced colt doesn’t
appear ready for the top ones in here just yet. Pass.
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9
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Riccolo
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Got back on track with an
easy score in the $110k Su Mac Lad at Balmoral last time, and has been lightly
raced since being acquired by new connections back in July. 10 of 11 on the season, has plenty of
talent.
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Race 7 Selections 5-4-1-7
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1
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Thinking Out Loud
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A couple of solid efforts in
the Jug to finish 4th in both heats, and got used hard on the lead
in his local start prior. No question
he does his best work off the pace, not sure the rail helps him all that
much.
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2
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Damon Blue Chip
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Appears overmatched against
this crew. Pass.
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3
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Mortal Zin
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Defeated his stablemate (#6)
in the last couple of 2nd tier NJ sired events, but steps back up
to take on the best of the best tonight.
Not sure I can make a case for him against these. Gingras opted to #7 instead.
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4
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Bettor’s Edge
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Appears to have really
rounded the corner over the last several weeks for Team Toscano, including a
couple of big miles in the Jug. Lands
in an ultra competitive crew, will need his very best once again.
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5
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Pet Rock
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They tried parking him a bit
early in the mile last time, and they got this guy woke up as he obliterated
the field with a sensational 50.3 score by open lengths. His main rivals in here are coming off 2
rough Jug heats last week, this guy could be the fresh threat after not being
eligible to the Jug.
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6
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Verdad
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Appears to be a notch or two
below the top colts in here, would have to find a lot more. Gingras opted to #7.
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7
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A Rocknroll Dance
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It’s been a long season for
this guy who has banked over a million already on the year, and he got used
extremely hard in those 2 Jug heats.
Will he be on his toes and ready to rebound this quickly? Not sure.
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8
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Simply Business
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Hasn’t been able to follow
up his stellar freshman season, but has still held his own against the top
colts all year. Lands on the outside
of a stacked up crew here though. Your
call.
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Race 8 Selections 3-4-1-5
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1
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Sarandon Blue Chip
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Appeared to be the real deal
when she debuted earlier this season at The Big M, but hasn’t been able to
knock off the best of the best at least until this point. Should sit close from the pole, will need
her very best.
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2
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Rockaround Sue
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Has been a notch or two
below the top fillies in the country to this point, and would have to pick
things up quite a bit to contend for any of the major awards.
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3
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American Jewel
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The Jugette post draw was
not kind to her, as she landed in post 7 and was forced to blast early only
to be parked every step of the mile.
No question the one to beat if she can rebound with her best
effort.
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4
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Economy Terror
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No question she was used
extremely hard in making the lead from post 7 in the Jugette, but she did
pack it in pretty badly late. Ultra
impressive here in GC action last year.
Another that needs a big rebound.
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5
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Blackjack Princess
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Riding high on a 3 race win
streak, including knocking off some tough older mares in the Open at Yonkers a couple of
weeks back. Still needs to double down
on that performance to hang with the top ones in here.
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6
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Podges Lady
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Quietly put together a
decent resume on the year, dodging many of the top fillies in the country
along the way. Unfortunately she lands
in against the best of the best here.
Would need a lot more. YG opted
to #7 instead.
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7
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Destiny’s Chance
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Lands on the outside of a
solid group, and likely to have to do it from last with an enormous amount of
early speed inside her. Tough to hop
on board with that in mind. Gingras
opted here over #6.
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Race 9 Selections 10-4-3-6
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1
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Electrify
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($45k HB yearling) Has had
some breaking problems thus far, would take a lot more to hang with this
crew.
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2
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Rocks N Bonds
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($25k Lex yearling) Hung in
there with some tough colts to begin his career at The Big M, but now we
haven’t seen him in over 45 days. I
could only endorse him for the minor awards.
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3
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Fresh N Fast
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Canadian invader has been
solid against some tough overnight company thus far, and likely isn’t facing
anything much better in this spot. I
can make a case. Campbell opted here over #11.
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4
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Roar
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($82k Lex yearling) Looked
to be headed for a nice summer when he debuted earlier this year, but went
missing for a bit before the sharp Q’fers recently. Not sure what happened there, but he
appears ready. Tetrick opted here over
#’s 6 & 9.
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5
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Sectionline Road
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Has been ok on the Ohio circuit, but
appears to be a notch or two below the top colts in here for now. Pass.
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6
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Spartacus Pv
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($52k HB yearling) Handily
defeated #2 in that AM Q’fer at Pocono, and has been holding his own against
mid-level stakes company in PA thus far.
I will toss him on the ticket to add some value. Tetrick opted to #4 instead.
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7
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Itsahard rocklife
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First time starter finished
far behind #6 in his only AM work, and would have to find a lot more to
contend for any of the major awards tonight.
D. Miller opted here over #1.
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8
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Bad Boy Doll
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($6.5k Del yearling) Arrives locally after over 2
months on the shelf, but appeared ready with the local Q’fer. Likely to be coming from off the pace
though, not sure that sets up well here in big bulky field.
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9
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Yucatan
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($100k Lex yearling) Raced
evenly behind #4 in the Q’fer into a 55.1 back half. Slammed with post 9 in big field, not sure
things will work out well form way out here.
Tetrick opted to #4 instead.
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10
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Ultimate Beachboy
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($57k HB yearling) I must
admit that I was overly impressed with his local debut 2 back, and the rival
that beat him in there came back to race in stakes action. This colt has some ability and the price is
right!
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11
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Real Marriage
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Yet to miss the board in 3
tries, but certainly facing his toughest task to date. Appears to be a tough spot, and we haven’t
seen him in over 2 months. I’ll watch
one first. Campbell opted to #3 instead.
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Race 10 Selections 3-6-7-1
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1
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Escape the News
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Held his own against the
best of the best in both heats of the Jug last week, but lands back in
another stacked up crew here. Should
sit close from the pole. Maybe. Tetrick opted to #4 instead.
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2
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Hillbilly Hanover
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Has been a step or two below
the top level colts all season, and appears to have hooked several of those
rivals in here. I’ll wait for a better
spot.
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3
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Bolt the Duer
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Nailed in the absolute final
stride by the eventual Jug winner in the first heat last week, but he has
never done his best work on the front.
If he gets to follow someone just off the pace, they won’t beat him.
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4
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Mel Mara
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Has flown under the radar
here in the latter part of the year with a predominantly Canadian stakes
resume. Packs plenty of speed, but it
would take his very best to hang with the favs in here. Tetrick opted here over #1.
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5
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One Through Ten
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A recent private purchase I
assume, making his first start for new barn in the Jug last week. Certainly has some talent, but not sure
he’s ready to go with the top ones in this spot.
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6
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Sweet Lou
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I’m not sure if I could ever
call $613k a disappointing season, but his connections had high hopes after a
standout freshman campaign. Raced well
in the Jug, he and #2 had a couple of epic battles here last year. Big shot.
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7
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Dapper Dude
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Outside post should suit him
just fine, as he typically likes to come from off the pace. Handily defeated #6 in the $200k PASS Final
on 9-1. Should be flying late once
again.
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Race 11 Selections 7-8-3-5
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1
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The Pan Poobah
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Picked up some nice checks
against stakes company recently, but taking on a couple of the best in North America in this spot. Appears to be one of many with a shot at
the minor awards.
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2
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Jude Hall
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A notch below the top colts
in the KYSS, and things aren’t going to get any easier in this spot. Pass.
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3
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Good Day Mate
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Never worse than 2nd
in 7 LT tries, but lands in quite the shark tank here to try and keep that
streak alive. Would have to find even
more speed. Palone opted here over
#6.
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4
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Jones Beach
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($50k Lex yearling) Held his
own against some tough rivals on the PA circuit, but is yet to face anything
like he will in this spot tonight.
Would take a lot more.
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5
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Hail the Taxi
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($65k HB yearling) NY
invader finished a distant 2nd behind #7 in the $309k Wilson on Hambo Day at
The Big M. One of several with a shot
to pick up the minor awards behind the favs.
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6
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My One Tru Desire
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($13k HB yearling) Added
lasix in OH last time, yet came up short as the fav. Facing a stacked up crew here. I’ll wait for a better spot. Palone opted to #3 instead.
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7
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Captain Treacherous
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($250k Lex yearling) Showed
plenty of guts to drive by and dig in for the win in the $1 million Metro
last time at Mohawk. Got by #8 fairly
easily down the lane in there. No
question the one to beat.
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8
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Apprentice Hanover
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($90k Lex yearling) Things
set up perfectly for him with $1 million on the line in Canada, but
he was unable to fend off a couple of closers (including #7) after taking the
lead turning for home. If he couldn’t
beat him in there, not sure he will be able to turn the tables in this spot.
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Race 12 Selections 2-5-3-8-4 10 CENT SUPER
HI FIVE WAGERING
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1
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Modern Cruiser
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($30k HB yearling) Tried an
aggressive first over attack last time in Indy, but tired a bit late to
finish 4th. Continues to
improve with each start, but asking a lot to step up against this kind
already. YG chose over #6.
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2
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Wake Up Peter
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($20k Lex yearling) Hasn’t
had much luck with post draws in the big money finals thus far, but has still
managed to pick up some nice checks against tough company. Appears to have landed in a comfortable div
here.
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3
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Twilight Bonfire
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Made quick work of his
rivals on Jug day in Delaware,
but steps up to take on what appears to be a better field in this spot. Would have to pick things up even
more.
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4
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Muscle Beachboy
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($75k HB yearling) Packs
plenty of early speed if Lachance elects to step on the gas, but stamina has
been the issue when racing against the top tier. Has to find a way to hang around late.
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5
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Urbanite Hanover
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($11k HB yearling) Has held
his own against some tough stakes company thus far in Canada, and
appears to have landed in a fairly comfortable spot for his local debut. His very best should put him very
close.
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6
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Storm the Beach
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($30k HB yearling) Almost
lasted on the lead last time in Delaware,
but likely faces a much tougher crew here in stakes action. Would have to pick things up quite a
bit. Gingras opted to #1 instead.
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7
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Van Gundy Hanover
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($25k HB yearling) OH
invader doesn’t appear to pack the speed to go with the top ones in here at
this point. I’ll pass for now.
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8
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Thirty Two Red
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($70k Lex yearling) Hasn’t
had much luck from outside posts against NY rivals recently, and lands on the
outside of another solid crew here. He
fits with these, but I typically bet black anyway.
|
$10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4
Races 6 – 9
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Race
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Race
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Race
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